Sunday, August 29, 2004


Has the "Convention Bounce" begun for Bush?

Rasmussen Reports has just come out with their latest Electoral College projection. Their poll, as of yesterday, has Bush ahead for the first time this year. Their current projection: Bush 213, Kerry 207, Toss-up 118.

Here are the changes since the 27th: Arkansas (6), Missouri (11) and Virginia (13) moved from "Toss-up" to Bush. Kerry's Iowa (7) became a Toss-up, but Maine (4) and Michigan (17) have moved into the Kerry camp. The big shift here is in the number of Toss-up votes, which has dropped from 162 to 118 in two days. Previously, 14 states were rated a Toss-up; now they're down to 10. Rasmussen considers anything less than a 5% difference a Toss-up.

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