Rasmussen Reports has just come out with their latest Electoral College projection. Their poll, as of yesterday, has Bush ahead for the first time this year. Their current projection: Bush 213, Kerry 207, Toss-up 118.

Here are the changes since the 27th: Arkansas (6), Missouri (11) and Virginia (13) moved from "Toss-up" to Bush. Kerry's Iowa (7) became a Toss-up, but Maine (4) and Michigan (17) have moved into the Kerry camp. The big shift here is in the number of Toss-up votes, which has dropped from 162 to 118 in two days. Previously, 14 states were rated a Toss-up; now they're down to 10. Rasmussen considers anything less than a 5% difference a Toss-up.