The futures markets have been touted as the best predictors of an election outcome. Until today these indicators favored Bush. But this afternoon the numbers changed.

Kerry led Bush by 18.1 percentage points in trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets, a not-for-profit political betting system run by the University of Iowa, as of 3:40 p.m. New York time. Kerry held a 16 percentage-point lead on Intrade, an electronic betting exchange based in Dublin known by its Web site TradeSports.com.

Ninety minutes earlier, Bush had a 3.8 percentage-point advantage over Kerry on the Iowa market and a 13.5 lead on Intrade. In Iowa, Bush futures last traded at 38.7 and Kerry was quoted at 56.8. On Intrade, Bush futures were quoted at 42, down from 57 at 2 p.m. Kerry was quoted at 58, up from 43.

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